A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
