A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
